It was 60 days in the past that the Villa attacker stood on the Sunderland turf, appearing bewildered while the Villa manager scolded him for failing to anticipate a through-ball. During that period, as Villa endured a six-game winless run, it wasn't clear if Rogers' form were a symptom or the source of Villa's broader struggles.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
In the latest match, however, the manager's outburst was entirely much more joyous. When the in-form star drilled in his second strike to restore Villa's lead, the Spanish tactician discarded his jacket, spread his arms and bellowed. Villa were on their way to a 10th successive win , after failing to win any of their first six games, now sit just three points off table-toppers Arsenal.
Is This Team Serious Hopefuls?
It remains a particularly tough proposition to address. The historical record, the traditional standing of the club, suggests not. Additionally, they have not been wholly dominant this season, despite the fact the wins have accumulated.
As per the data, on just two occasions have Villa posted an xG more than 0.5 greater than the other team. For a side that have strung together a ten-match winning streak, the Villans seem strangely fragile – but currently the margins are swinging for them.
The Winning Formula
Their recent policy seems to be to trade blows with rivals before hoping their star man to rescue them with two clinical strikes. This was the case at Leeds, it happened at West Ham, and once more against Manchester United.
The initial strike stemmed from a brilliant finish, arced precisely inside the goal frame from a wide position. For his second was essentially a slightly less clean iteration of his first capitalizing on a setup by his strike partner.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Logic says not. In the recent win, the opponents registered more shots and more efforts on goal. They have secured their last eight victories by a single goal. They’ve conceded in all but one of those games.
Regression to the mean may well be the biggest rival the club must confront in the near future. Rogers, in all likelihood, will not continue to blasting the ball past despairing goalkeepers indefinitely.
A Case for Belief
Perhaps there is another reality where, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, the level of play rises to match the results. Vital cogs could still rediscover their best form.
- The main striker might resume adding to his goal tally.
- The winger may rediscover the player he resembled during his peak.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres will eventually return from injury, strengthening an occasionally vulnerable defensive unit.
Perhaps there is in that the seeds for a sustained push, yet it seems unlikely can persist in leaning entirely on Morgan Rogers.
Enjoying the Ride
But then, this is a surprise. Few believed Villa would be in the top three for the holidays. And without a doubt earlier this season, no one envisioned Rogers as the year closed would be leading a hunt for the title while establishing himself as a crucial player for the national team.
The current run should be enjoyed exactly since it feels so unlikely. When Rogers faced the Villa faithful after the match conducting the cheers, he seemed to be thoroughly enjoying it. Which he fully merits. These runs of form are rare in football and should be relished.
